RBA confirms relaxed view on house prices

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 15 Mei 2014 | 00.51

YOU might disagree with the RBA about the state of the housing market, but you sure can't accuse them of ignoring it.

And the central bank is sticking with its view that we aren't in the midst of an inflating housing market bubble.

The RBA's head of financial stability, Luci Ellis, repeated that view in a speech in Sydney on Thursday.

She acknowledged what many commentators have pointed out, that in the 15 years or so to around 2005 growth in housing prices outpaced the rise in incomes.

"This was in large part a transition to a new equilibrium of lower inflation and interest rates, and thus higher debt and housing prices relative to incomes," she said.

The implied explanation for that is that most financial assets, like government bonds, become more valuable in a low-inflation environment.

That's because the income streams they are expected to produce are worth more today with low inflation.

Inflation, and the risk of even more inflation, erodes the value of future income.

So the present value of income-producing assets tends to increase as an economy moves from a high inflation environment to a period of low inflation.

And, although we most often think of them as somewhere to live, houses and apartments are also income-producing assets.

If anything, the housing market's transition to a higher price level was somewhat belated compared with rallies in bonds and shares.

But, backed by charts showing both debt and housing prices stabilising as a percentage of household income for most of the past decade, Dr Ellis said the transition is now over.

And that means it won't be a one-way street for investors in housing, with housing prices fluctuating around a flatter trend, meaning there will be more times when prices are falling than there used to be, she said.

That's created a different set of problems for the RBA.

For individuals, it means there will be less chance that a rising housing market will make up for mistakes they might make by paying too much for a property.

But for the central bank, the risks are magnified.

There would be little room for another bout of the kind of "property exuberance" seen in 2002 and 2003.

"Australia managed to have its housing boom end without a major disaster," she said.

"Plenty of other countries weren't so lucky."

An overstretched household sector would be a problem if something were to go wrong elsewhere in the economy she said.

So the RBA is focusing on making sure home buyers don't become overstretched by too much debt.

It's a risk for the RBA to monitor.

But it's a different risk than having to manage exponentially rising housing prices.


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